The approach of the end of the year, and the opening of the new, induces one to take stock, to weigh up what has happened and foresee what lies ahead. And for northeasterners in particular, 2016 certainly did not turn out to be an easy year. While the economy has, in general, shown signs of resilience and awakening, we are not yet faced with a recovery of the production system as a whole. In a condition of still fragile and uncertain growth, after long years of difficulty, the crisis of the two Veneto cooperative banks, plus the corollary represented by several north-eastern BCCs, fell like a hammer. A real collapse whose consequences are still only estimated in terms of the real economic impact on businesses and families. Not to mention the price that the regional credit system will have to pay as a result of mergers and amalgamations between institutions. In addition to the loss of the trust and reputation of banks that represented a point of reference and an identity for the area of reference: they too will have to be rebuilt. These events in the north-east are part of a more general picture of Italy, which is certainly not in the best of health.
Economic difficulties and political instability have been the common trait for several years: since 2008 we have had five governments (Berlusconi, Monti, Letta, Renzi and now Gentiloni), an average of more than one executive every two years. It is evident that with such a pace any political activity and reforming action suffers (sudden) blockages and (slow) restarts. The often evoked recovery is not coming. We continue to proceed in small steps, while other parts of the globe run at high speed. And in this double speed, in the 'zero-point syndrome', progressively divergent social and economic conditions mature: the gaps between those who are able to cope with difficulties and those who, on the other hand, see their resources progressively lost, pushed to the margins. In such a context, it becomes understandable that the balance of the population in the North East for 2016 and especially the forecasts for 2017 are not inspired by positivity. On the contrary, compared to the national average, the orientations towards the future appear more negative. This is the general outcome that emerges from the latest survey by Community Media Research. Making an assessment of how things went in 2016, on average 44.9% of Northeasterners did not perceive any substantial changes. In contrast, a similar share (45.2%) reported a worsening, while only a tenth (9.9%) experienced an improvement. The average hides some diversifications. The aspects that have not experienced any particular deviations are the fight against evasion (57.5%), income received (53.1%) and personal safety (50.9%). The dimensions that are perceived to have worsened more than others, on the other hand, refer to politics (Italian politics: 56.6%; political corruption: 46.7%) and the economy (Italian economy: 48.9%; tax pressure: 50.4%). The factor that gets the most positive assessment is Italy's international credibility, considered to have improved by 23.0% of Northeasterners. In summary, the perception of the population is that in 2016 Italy increased its authority in relations with foreign partners, remained mostly stable in individual income and security, but worsened its economic and especially political situation. What will 2017 hold in store for us, how will things go next year? In general, a pragmatic (or resigned?) view emerges. Those expecting an improvement do not deviate from their assessment of 2016. Slightly less than a tenth (8.5%) hope there will be a positive change, in particular as regards the tax burden (13.1%), our credibility on the international stage (10.8%) and the national economy (10.4%). On the other hand, there is an increase in those who believe that general conditions will remain stable (49.5%), especially with regard to personal security (58.7%) and their income (57.4%). Two-fifths of those in the North-East (42.1%), however, foresee a further worsening, especially with regard to Italian politics (51.8%), the tax burden (47.7%) and the economy (45.5%). It could be argued that for the near future most of the North-Eastern population foresees (and hopes for) 'no worsening' scenarios, considering that the general conditions (political, fiscal and economic) are still perceived as strongly critical. By combining the opinions expressed on the 2016 budget with those of the forecasts for 2017, it is possible to identify the mobility of opinion of the respondents between one year and the next. In this way, we obtain three groups. The first, and most quantitatively relevant, is of the north-eastern respondents who foresee a further worsening of conditions, a 'degradation'. This is a conspicuous quota (49.1%) and much higher than the national average (40.0%), nested above all in the Veneto (54.3%), in the lower-middle classes (44.2%, manual workers, pensioners) and lower classes (61.6%, manual workers, unemployed). The second group adds a similar amount (47.3%): it does not change its assessment and emphasises how our country remains anchored to the 'zero-virgin' syndrome, to 'stability'. Italy is considered sticky. And it is interesting to observe how it is above all the inhabitants of Trentino Alto Adige (52.6%), Friuli Venezia Giulia (50.0%) and the upper-middle class (68.4%, freelancers and executives) who most emphasise this orientation. The third group, made up of a largely minority share (3.6%), on the other hand perceives an improvement and growth between the two years, concentrated among those interviewed in Friuli Venezia Giulia (15.6%), the upper-middle class (9.3%) and, above all, the upper classes (35.8%, entrepreneurs, managers).
At the turn of the year, a negative pre-vision prevails in the north-east, of further deterioration of the country. At best, they expect 'no worse' conditions: a mixture of adaptation and disenchantment, caution and resignation. Very few see growth, while many in the lower and middle classes see a gradual erosion of their opportunities, rather than the possibility of upward mobility. And it is this polarisation in conditions, as certified by Istat and the outcome of the referendum vote, that drives the malaise. Cohesion and development must be the two paradigms of the future.
- Finegil Newspapers, 27 December 2016
- the Little One, 27 December 2016
- Messaggero Veneto, 27 December 2016
- The Trentino, 27 December 2016
- South Tyrol, 27 December 2016
- Il Giornale di Vicenza, 5 January 2017
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research carried out the Survey, which was conducted nationwide from 18 October to 4 November 2016 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged 18 and over. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the Questlab company. The total number of respondents was 1,486 (out of 12,785 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it.
