The approach of the end of the year, and the opening of the new one, induces us to take stock, to weigh up what has happened and foresee what lies ahead. We have come from several years of economic difficulty and political instability, not least that generated by the referendum result. Since 2008 we have had five governments (Berlusconi, Monti, Letta, Renzi and now Gentiloni), on average more than one executive every two years. It is evident that with such a pace any political activity and reform action suffers a continuous 'stop and go'. The attempt to offer a coherent design to the country and, therefore, a direction to pursue becomes like Penelope's web: what is woven one day is unravelled the next. Thus, emergency has become our normality. We live in a condition of continuous discontinuity, fuelling an adaptive and cautious orientation among economic operators and in the population.Because in uncertainty, it is better to move cautiously. Exactly the opposite of what is needed at a time like the present where speed and strategic planning are the determining factors for a recovery of competitiveness of the country-system. In spite of this, albeit with fluctuating economic data, GDP has returned slightly to the positive side and, despite everything, the action of the Renzi government has brought some positive results. However, the turnaround, the often evoked recovery, has not come.
We continue to proceed in small steps, while other parts of the globe run at high speed. And in this double speed, in the 'zero-point syndrome', progressively divergent social and economic conditions mature: the gaps between those who are able to cope with difficulties and those who, on the other hand, see their resources progressively lost, pushed to the margins. This is the general picture that emerges from the latest survey on Italians by Community Media Research. Taking stock of how things went in 2016, on average 44.6% did not perceive any substantial changes. In contrast, a similar share (42.6%) reported a worsening, while only a tenth (12.8%) experienced an improvement. The average hides some diversifications. The aspects that have not experienced any particular deviations are personal security (56.8%), income received (53.7%) and the fight against tax evasion (51.2%). The dimensions that are perceived to have worsened more than others, on the other hand, refer to politics (Italian politics: 57.7%; political corruption: 47.9%) and the economy (Italian economy: 47.9%; tax pressure: 43.4%). The only factor that gets a positive assessment is Italy's international credibility, considered to have improved by 32.8% of Italians. In short, the perception of the population is that in 2016 Italy increased its authority in relations with foreign partners, remained mostly stable in individual income and security, but worsened its economic and especially political situation. What will 2017 hold in store for us, how will things go next year? In general, a pragmatic (or resigned?) view emerges. Those expecting an improvement do not deviate from their assessment of 2016. Slightly more than a tenth (13.6%) hope that there will be a positive change, particularly with regard to our country's economy (21.7%) and that our credibility on the international stage will improve (20.7%). On the other hand, there is an increase in those who believe that general conditions will remain stable (50.6%), especially with regard to personal safety (65.6%), their income (58.9%) and political corruption (55.1%). One third of the Italians, however, foresee a further deterioration (35.8%), especially on the side of Italian politics (51.0%) and our economy (38.9%). It could be argued that for the near future, the majority of Italians foresee (and hope for) 'no worsening' scenarios, given that the general (political and economic) conditions are still perceived to be highly critical. By combining the opinions expressed on the 2016 budget with those of the forecasts for 2017, it is possible to identify the mobility of opinion of the respondents between one year and the next. In this way, we obtain three groups. The first, and most relevant quantitatively, are the Italians who do not detect any discontinuity between the two years considered. 52.7% do not change their assessment and emphasise how our country remains anchored to the 'zero-point syndrome', to 'stability': the feeling is of a sticky Italy. And it is interesting to observe how it is above all the upper-middle class (68.4%), made up of freelancers and executives, who most emphasise this orientation. The second group sees a further recrudescence of conditions, a 'degradation'. This is a conspicuous share (40.0%) nested above all in the lower middle class (44.2%, manual workers, pensioners) and lower middle class (61.6%, manual workers, unemployed). The third group, made up of a largely minority share (7.3%), on the other hand perceives an improvement and growth between the two years, concentrated in the upper-middle (9.3%) and, above all, upper classes (35.8%, entrepreneurs, managers).
At the turn of the year, an almost flat pre-vision prevails among Italians: a mixture of adaptation and disenchantment, of caution and resignation. Few see growth, while many among the lower and middle classes glimpse a gradual erosion of their opportunities, rather than the possibility of upward mobility. And it is this polarisation in conditions, as certified by Istat and the outcome of the referendum vote, that drives the malaise. Cohesion and development must be the key words on the agenda for Italy's future.
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo for La Stampa, carried out the LaST (Laboratory on Society and Territory) survey, which was conducted nationwide from 18 October to 4 November 2016 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged 18 and over. The methodological aspects and the survey were carried out by Questlab. The total number of respondents was 1,486 (out of 12,785 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it.
