The advent of the financial and economic crisis in 2008 constituted a watershed for development paradigms, the effects of which are still present in multiple dimensions. Among the consequences, the most obvious is the polarisation of the production system: companies have become increasingly divided between those who have performed well and those who have experienced increasingly marked difficulties. Generally, the former are those that have invested in innovation processes and opened up to relations with foreign markets. The latter, on the other hand, are those who have been unable/unable to innovate and have operated exclusively on the domestic market. Between these two poles, the room for manoeuvre inspired by passive waiting for improvement has only produced negative outcomes and caused companies to slide out of the market. Now this process of increasingly sharp divarication is moving from the level of the production system to that of households and individuals. And everything suggests that it will have a relatively high speed, the signs of which we are already seeing today. One only has to look at the latest data to see a resurgence of poverty and polarisation in the economic conditions of households.
ISTAT estimates that 28.7 per cent of people living in Italy (2015) are at risk of poverty or social exclusion (it was 28.3 per cent in 2014). These figures still place us far from the threshold identified by the European 2020 strategy, which indicated for our country a share of just under 13 million individuals, when today we are well over 17 million. And while in Europe, on average, there is a decrease in poverty, we climb upwards in the ranking, unfortunately the only case in which we rise in international rankings. And not only is social exclusion increasing, but also the distance between rich and poor. ISTAT shows how, between 2009 and 2014, income in real terms falls more for households belonging to the poorest 20%, thus widening the distance from the richest, whose income rises from 4.6 to 4.9 times that of the poorest. The polarisation of economic conditions also affects Italian families and, as the latest Caritas report emphasises, this process disrupts the traditional social categories that - previously - were those most at risk of exclusion. Today, the systems of inequality also affect the younger generations, those who have a job and few children but are precarious or have low remuneration. Above all, it also touches the middle class more and more closely, eroding its traditional certainties. It is no coincidence that after the vote in Great Britain (Brexit), the election of Trump in the USA and the spread of populist movements that intercept significant parts of the electorate belonging to the middle class, the attention of politics towards the issues of social cohesion are returning to the political agenda. How the population's membership of different social groups has changed is the subject of the latest survey by Community Media Research. The overall outcome highlights the polarisation in perceived economic conditions. If in 2011 just over half of Italians (52.2%) belonged to the upper-middle and upper classes, today only 26.5% belong to the same social groups. Conversely, if the share of those who identify themselves in the lower class increases slightly (9.5%, it was 4.5% in 2011), those who swell the ranks of the lower-middle class increase significantly, rising from 43.3% (2011) to 64.1% (2016). Thus, it is above all a substantial part of the middle class that suffers a divarication in perceived economic conditions, driven to downward rather than upward mobility. It is a phenomenon that affects the whole of Italy, but one that experiences a particular deterioration in the South. In 2011, 46.6 per cent of respondents were in the lower and lower middle classes, rising to an impressive 78.8 per cent in 2016. Hence, as Prime Minister Gentiloni also emphasised recently, the attention that the executive wants to devote to the younger generations and the Mezzogiorno. By comparing self-placements in the two periods, it is possible to define the perceived social mobility of Italians, i.e. how and whether the social lift is working. The outcome delivers a largely blocked country. For almost two-thirds of the Italians (62.1%), the social lift always remains at the same level: in the period examined (2011-16), they did not experience any significant deviations, at most they experienced horizontal mobility. This was the case, in particular, for the youngest (68.2% up to 34 years of age), university graduates (69.4%), those belonging to the upper-middle and upper classes (86.6%) and residing in the North (66.6%). By contrast, for a third (34.3%) the social lift has descended downwards. This descent involves people as they get older (41.0% over 65), those with medium-low educational qualifications (35.8%) and the unemployed (49.6%). Above all, it affects those living in the South (43.2%) and those belonging to the lower middle class (41.7%) and lower middle class (67.4%). Very few (3.6%) experienced upward social mobility and almost exclusively those belonging to the upper-middle class (11.1%).
Thus, not only are we faced with a process of polarisation of the economic conditions of Italians, but it is evident how - in the absence of any possibility of upward social mobilisation - a 'spiral effect' is also evident, which pushes those who were already in difficulty towards further marginality, on the one hand. And, on the other, it sucks upwards only those who already occupied high positions. To paraphrase the late sociologist Bauman, rather than 'liquid', Italy is a 'viscous' country, where the social lift works little or, when it does, is highly selective. Slow economic recovery and blocked social mobility are two obstacles that must be removed quickly to build the country's future.
The Press, 30 January 2017
The 19th Century, 30 January 2017
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo for La Stampa, carried out the LaST (Laboratory on Society and Territory) survey, which was conducted nationwide from 18 October to 4 November 2016 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged 18 and over. The methodological aspects and the survey were carried out by Questlab. The total number of respondents was 1,486 (out of 12,785 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it.
