The phenomenon of polarisation These conditions are one of the legacies of the financial and economic crisis that began in 2008. The most obvious impact has been on the manufacturing sector: businesses have become increasingly divided between those that have performed well and those that have faced ever-greater difficulties. Generally speaking, the former are those that have invested in innovation and opened up to foreign markets. The latter, on the other hand, are those that have been unable or unwilling to innovate and have operated exclusively in the domestic market. Between these two extremes, the approach of passively waiting for things to improve has yielded only negative results and led to companies being forced out of the market. Now, this process of increasingly sharp divergence is shifting from the manufacturing sector to households and individuals. And everything suggests that it will proceed at a relatively rapid pace, the signs of which we are already seeing today. One need only consult the latest data to see the growing trend of resurgent poverty and polarisation in households’ economic circumstances.
According to Istat, in 2015 the incidence of absolute poverty rose in the North both in terms of households (from 4.2 per cent in 2014 to 5.0 per cent) and in terms of individuals (from 5.7 per cent to 6.7 per cent). These figures show that we are still a long way from the threshold set by the Europe 2020 strategy, which set a target for Italy of just under 13 million people, whereas today we far exceed 17 million. And whilst poverty is falling on average across Europe, we are climbing the rankings – unfortunately the only instance in which we are rising in international rankings. Not only is social exclusion on the rise, but so too is the gap between rich and poor. Istat highlights that between 2009 and 2014, real income fell more sharply for households in the poorest 20 per cent, thereby widening the gap with the wealthiest households, whose income rose from 4.6 to 4.9 times that of the poorest. Furthermore, the polarisation of economic conditions is also affecting households in the north-east and, as the latest Caritas report for the north-east emphasises, this process is undermining the traditional social groups which – previously – were the most at risk of exclusion. Of the people accommodated in the residential facilities run by the 15 diocesan Caritas organisations, 50.3 per cent are Italian, 5.6 per cent are EU nationals and 44.1 per cent are non-EU nationals. Above all, it is increasingly affecting the middle class as well, eroding their traditional certainties. It is no coincidence that, following the referendum in the UK (Brexit), Trump’s election in the US and the rise of populist movements that are attracting significant sections of the middle-class electorate, the focus of institutions (see President Mattarella’s end-of-year address) and politicians on the issue of social cohesion is returning to the political agenda. How the population’s affiliation with different social groups has changed is the subject of the latest survey by Community Media Research. The overall findings highlight polarisation in perceived economic conditions. Whilst in 2011 just over half of people in the north-east (54.3 per cent) identified as belonging to the upper-middle and upper classes, today only 26.4 per cent place themselves in these same social classes. Conversely, whilst the proportion of those identifying as lower class has risen slightly (9.0%, up from 2.7% in 2011), there has been a significant increase in the number joining the lower-middle class, which has risen from 43.0% (2011) to 64.6% (2016). Thus, it is above all a substantial section of the middle class that is experiencing a divergence in perceived economic conditions, driven towards downward rather than upward mobility. This is a phenomenon affecting the entire North-East, but one that produces different – and, to some extent, paradoxical – outcomes across the three regions. The people of Trentino and South Tyrol hold the record for the highest per capita GDP in Italy at €34,856, albeit with a slight decline between 2008 and 2014 (-3.5%), whilst the people of Veneto rank 8th (-9.4 per cent) in the national rankings and those of Friuli-Venezia Giulia 13th (-11.9 per cent). Nevertheless, far fewer of them consider themselves to belong to the upper-middle and upper classes, both in 2011 (29.8 per cent) and in 2016 (12.0 per cent). This highlights how collective perception and imagination are sometimes constructed in a way that is detached from objective reality.
By comparing people’s self-assessments across the two periods, it is possible to gauge the perceived social mobility of people in the north-east – in other words, how and whether the ‘social ladder’ works. The results reveal a region that is largely stagnant. For almost two-thirds (67.6 per cent), the ‘social lift’ remains on the same floor: during the period examined (2011–16), they experienced no significant changes; at most, they experienced horizontal mobility. This was particularly the case in Trentino-Alto Adige (80.8%), amongst younger people (68.2% of those aged up to 34), university graduates (69.4%), and those belonging to the upper-middle and upper classes (86.6%). Conversely, for one third (31.5%), social mobility has moved downwards, particularly in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (39.4%). This decline affects people as they get older (41.0% of those over 65), those with a lower-to-middle level of education (35.8%) and the unemployed (49.6%). Above all, it affects those in the lower-middle class (41.7 per cent) and the lower class (67.4 per cent). Very few (0.9%) have experienced upward social mobility, and this has occurred almost exclusively amongst those belonging to the upper-middle class (11.1%).
So, for the majority of people in the north-east, social mobility has come to a standstill. But whilst in Trentino-Alto Adige (80.8 per cent) it remains largely stagnant, in Veneto (31.9 per cent) and Friuli-Venezia Giulia (39.4 per cent) many are experiencing a decline. Thus, not only are we facing a polarisation of economic conditions, but it is also evident that – in the absence of opportunities for upward social mobility – a ‘spiral effect’ is at work: on the one hand, it pushes those already in difficulty further towards marginalisation; And, on the other hand, it pulls upwards only those who were already in high positions. To paraphrase the late sociologist Bauman, rather than being ‘liquid’, we live in a ‘viscous’ society, where social mobility functions poorly or, when it does function, is highly selective. A slow economic recovery and stalled social mobility are two obstacles that must be removed swiftly in order to build the future of the North-East.
- Finegil newspapers, 4 February 2017
- il Piccolo, 5 February 2017
- Messaggero Veneto, 5 February 2017
- Il Trentino, 11 February 2017
- South Tyrol, 11 February 2017
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo – Cassa Risparmio del Veneto, carried out the survey, which took place nationwide from 18 October to 4 November 2016 amongst a representative sample of the resident population in Italy aged over 18. The methodological aspects and data collection were handled by Questlab. The total number of respondents was 1,486 (out of 12,785 contacts). The data analysis was reweighted according to gender, region, age group, employment status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was conducted via a visual survey on the main social media platforms and using a random sample reached via CAWI and CATI systems. Full report available at www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it.
