Grow or degrow? Better to grow, giving more attention to the new dimensions of development such as sustainability and care for the environment. In short, we must continue to produce and work with the quality of progress at the centre. The prospect of degrowth is not on people's horizon. Faced with this dilemma, the direction emerging from the Italians surveyed in the latest Community Group survey for La Stampa is clear. And it is an indication in countertendency to what we are witnessing in recent months, where the underlying motif - particularly of the League-State executive, albeit with some internal distinctions - is marked by a sentiment of negativity towards any major work and towards the productive classes.
Behind the now reiterated and stereotyped demand to assess the cost-benefit ratio for each project, there is the intention (if you pardon the metaphor) to pull the handbrake on a car that is already running too slowly. And the latest estimate of GDP non-growth in the third quarter of this year is there to remind us of this. First Ilva and then TAP, to which they obtorto collo had to give the green light. But the 'no' to the Olympic Games in Rome, the one pronounced by the City of Turin on the TAV and the farewell to the Winter Games with Milan and Cortina, the doubts pronounced on the TAV in the North East, the Brenner tunnel, the Pedemontana superhighway, and certainly forget other works, all imply a negative vision of development.
Now, there is no doubt that a set of choices made by local and national administrators, by companies, but also by private citizens (see the case of building abuse) have failed to safeguard an orderly and far-sighted growth of our cities, territory and environment. From the effects of climate change on our environment, to pollution; from the lack of infrastructure, to the overbuilding of the territory: there is no shortage of negative examples. However, the question is whether to redirect development we should throw the baby out with the bathwater or carefully distinguish the pros and cons, and with due progression shift policies towards development linked to innovation and sustainability. And this is precisely the indication that emerges from the vast majority of respondents.
Two thirds of Italians (65.6%) consider it necessary to continue producing and working in order to grow, but stressing the need to pay greater attention to the quality of development, precisely to avoid the mistakes of the past. Alongside this view, there is a conservative perspective on growth, linked to the fear of losing the wealth acquired (18.8%) and therefore of continuing along the road travelled so far. Thus, albeit with different nuances, overall more than four fifths (84.4%) of the population look to the future with the expectation of continuing to progress. A vision close to the idea of degrowth, on the other hand, appeals to a largely minority, though not marginal, quota of those interviewed: in general, just over a fifth (15.6%) believe that a higher quality of development must take place by reducing the pace of growth (11.8%) and 3.8% think that the accumulated wealth is more than enough: the strategy is to defend it.
Thus, we can identify three visions of development. The one that is most consistent and embraces the vast majority of the population (65.6%) draws a 'qualitative development': it is necessary to continue growing, but differently from the past. It is a perspective shared above all by the younger generations and students, entrepreneurs, those with higher qualifications and living in northern Italy. The prospect of 'traditional growth', in line with the past, involves 18.8% of respondents, particularly among those with a low educational qualification, housewives and pensioners and, emblematically, those who live in southern Italy and have not yet experienced real economic growth. The view of 'degrowth' (15.6 per cent) is of greater interest to those who have already reached important working positions (such as executives) and, conversely, the unemployed who would plausibly feel the loss of status less. But it is in the North-East that degrowth has proportionally more adherents: an economically rich territory, the result of growth that has taken place in an effervescent manner, but also a disorderly one that has wreaked not a few disasters on the territory.
That there is a need to imagine further development of our country is not just an abstract ideal, but is anchored in real needs. It is enough to observe the Italians' evaluation of a number of services in our country, compared to the European average, to understand this. The only service they consider similar or better on a European scale is the healthcare system (63.8%). Although with great territorial differences: largely promoted in the North East (83.6%) and North West (75.8%), largely rejected in the South (46.0%). For the rest of the ranking, the services offered are well below the continental average. In order we find the school system (42.3%), connectivity (wi-fi/internet/broadband: 37.5%), the infrastructure system (roads, motorways, airports: 33.1%) and railways (30.1%), and taxation (15.0%). Each of these items knows significant territorial gaps, but in general they all prefigure a serious lag behind the European average.
Hence, the idea of the country's future, based on real needs, cannot be marked by a general 'let's stop the machines' or by sharp (unrealistic) breaks with the past. Because we live in a complex system of national and international relations that must be properly managed: with mediation skills, interlocution and clear perspectives on development. The GDP measure does not (yet) contain people's happiness, but to restore their happiness, it is necessary to build GDP. No GDP? No party.
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo for La Stampa, is carrying out the LaST (Laboratory on Society and Territory) Survey, which was conducted nationwide from 12 to 25 September 2018 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged over 18. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the Questlab company. The total number of respondents was 1,427 (out of 15,033 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.6%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it
