The recovery is happening, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting me. This is the most widespread perception amongst Italian households, which, in recent years, appear to have partly weathered the difficulties they faced when the crisis began 10 years ago. Not all of them have yet emerged from the tunnel they entered in 2008: some (a few) have seen their financial situation improve, others (the majority) believe their income has remained stable, whilst others (quite a few) have found themselves on a downward economic spiral. Their forecasts for this year are divided between those who feel that the most critical period is now behind them and, conversely, those who see uncertainty ahead. It is as though Italian society, having left its darkest economic period behind, now finds itself more divided internally. This polarisation was also reflected in the vote on 4 March.
The fact that this slight improvement is not based solely on perceptions is also borne out by data from the Bank of Italy. In 2016, the average annual income of Italian households stood at €31,469, a slight increase compared with two years earlier (+3 per cent), but still a long way from reaching the €36,142 recorded in the years prior to the crisis (2006). Further evidence of an overall improvement in the national economy comes from GDP figures and forecasts, not only from the Government but also from various national and international institutions, which show growth in our productive system. This growth is slow compared with other European countries, but nevertheless shows a positive trend that is strengthening over time. However, it will take time for the economy’s new momentum to translate into tangible improvements in the resources available to households (wages). The crisis, as is well known, has eroded a substantial portion of households’ financial resources, the most immediate consequence of which was a collapse in consumption. And, more generally, it has fuelled a sense of impoverishment which, for some, has effectively become an objective state of poverty. For others, it has taken the form of relative deprivation: the difficulty in maintaining the standard of living they previously enjoyed, which has affected a section of the middle class in particular.
Consequently, a sense of caution and uncertainty about the future pervades the Italian population: they have shown resilience in the face of economic difficulties, which they have weathered by drawing on their savings and dipping into their assets, but they are adopting a more wait-and-see approach to the future despite the positive signals from official indicators. These are the main findings of the latest survey by Community Media Research on the economic conditions of Italians and their future prospects. Undoubtedly, compared with four years ago (2014), it can certainly be said that Italians’ incomes have not deteriorated further: more than half (56.6 per cent) state that it has remained stable over the last three years, a significantly higher figure than in 2014, when the proportion stood at 44.7 per cent. The situation has improved for one-fifth of those surveyed (19.1 per cent), and to a greater extent than a few years ago (8.7 per cent in 2014). Conversely, the proportion of those who have seen their income fall has decreased from 46.6 per cent in 2014 to 24.3 per cent today. This is a significant decrease, but one that still affects a quarter of Italians. As always, the average figure masks the significant regional differences. Whilst in the North-East as many as 25.8 per cent have seen an improvement in their household income over the last three years, the corresponding figure for the South is just 13.7 per cent. This once again highlights the regional divisions within Italy.
These initial signs of a slight improvement in the economic circumstances of Italian households are beginning to be reflected in projections for the future. Whilst a faint sign of a turnaround had been observed in 2015 compared with the previous year, three years on, these perceptions have become more pronounced. Almost a quarter of Italians (23.0 per cent) believe that the crisis is now over and that the signs of recovery are clear, whereas only 8.0 per cent of respondents shared this view in 2015. Consequently, opinions on future prospects have improved significantly, although this remains confined to a still relatively small section of the population. However, rather than an increase in the number of people who believe the economic difficulties will persist for longer, there has been a sharp rise in those expressing uncertainty: from 13.6 per cent in 2015 to 28.5 per cent in 2018. The number of those who are doubtful now exceeds those who believe the country has already emerged from the crisis. Here too, regional divisions are evident. Whilst the North (25.1 per cent) already feels it is emerging from the crisis, the Centre-South (30.0 per cent) is gripped by deep concern.
In this regard, it is worth considering which sectors are expected to experience economic growth in the near future. For Italians, economic improvement will affect the area where they live to a much greater extent (37.2 per cent), Italy as a whole (42.0 per cent) and, even more so, Europe (59.5 per cent) – far more so than themselves and their own families (27.3 per cent). Thus, positive expectations for the future are more evident in the external context and only marginally affect those surveyed. It is as though the recovery were taking place outside the walls of their own homes. This finding is reflected in the future confidence index. The ‘optimists’ – that is, those who express largely positive views across all areas considered – account for 15.0 per cent, a marked decline compared with previous surveys. The number of ‘wait-and-see’ respondents (51.3 per cent) is growing, and their outlook appears to be characterised by greater caution. The proportion of those who are ‘concerned’ (23.1 per cent, with negative assessments of the future outweighing positive ones) and ‘pessimists’ (10.6 per cent, whose views are entirely negative) remains stable.
The economic circumstances of Italians have improved slightly compared with a few years ago, but the wounds of a long crisis have not yet fully healed. For a significant minority of households, the decline in disposable income shows no sign of ending. The period of hardship from which Italy is slowly emerging has left behind at least two divisions that are becoming more pronounced: social and territorial. These are issues that the new parliament’s political agenda should actively address.
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo for La Stampa, is carrying out the LaST (Laboratory on Society and Territory) Survey, which was conducted nationwide from 9 to 22 January 2018 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged over 18. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the Questlab company. The total number of respondents was 1,482 (out of 13,384 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it
