The detachment of northeasterners from politics is decreasing, but identification with the parties is not increasing. Rather, there is a growing 'disenchanted closeness' and, above all, a bargaining attitude towards the political offer. This can be explained by observing the unfolding of an election campaign marked by a fil rougeuncertainty. There is a policy of uncertainty and an uncertainty towards policy. The former is determined by a combination of factors. The new electoral law itself, on the basis of voting forecasts, seems to be handing the country a tri-polarity that - as things stand, if a government is to be formed - will at least require two poles to agree with each other. A situation that is today deplored and shunned in official declarations, so as not to displease their electoral base, but which behind the scenes sees the various actors seeking mutual bargains.
What to say then about election proclamations. Precisely to try to attract a disaffected electorate, a veritable 'market of promises' has been generated, a sort of electoral bazaar, which the bishops themselves have recently warned against. And which, paradoxically, finds the same allies within the coalitions at odds with each other. Thus, we find ourselves before a policy that is indeterminate in its visions and programmes for the country's future. It is the politics of uncertainties. This is the reverberation of another dimension that frightens political forces: uncertainty towards politics. It is fuelled by the possibility that a conspicuous number of voters will not go to the polls, particularly among the younger generation.
Finegil Newspapers, 4 February 2018
Courier of the Alps, 4 February 2018
The Little One, 4 February 2018
Messaggero Veneto, 4 February 2018
In the last national election round (2013), the highest peak of abstentions was reached where one in four voters (25.1%) refused to exercise their right to vote. And such a quota of people, if mobilised, decisively shifts the balance between the political forces. It is no coincidence that President Mattarella, in his end-of-year speech, made a heartfelt appeal to the younger generations, who are voting for the first time, to take part in writing a new page for the country's history. An appeal to which all political actors joined in. Rather than probing voting intentions, Community Media Research explored orientations towards politics, parties and the motivations behind them.
The political debate shows an increased focus on electoral issues and a growing feeling of closeness to political formations. But always keeping a certain distance. A comparison with a previous survey, carried out at the time of the last regional local elections (2015), shows that the level of identification with a party is decreasing (8.8%, it was 16.4% in 2015). Rather, a generic interest in a party grows (26.4%, from 16.9% in 2015). Above all, it is a bargaining sentiment that is growing more conspicuously: 36.4% of Northeasterners say they do not have a party or movement with which they identify, but evaluate the political offer from time to time (it was 16.8% in 2015). Thus, an attitude of detachment from the parties diminishes (from 49.9% in 2015, to 28.4% today) as a result of the increased public discussion, but rather than nurturing a convinced adhesion, it generates the resurgence of a feeling of proximity-to-distance and, in particular, a bargaining attitude rises.
This is an emblematic sign of the weakening of traditional affiliations, which no political culture has yet replaced. In fact, if we analyse this result with the respondents' declaration of their place in traditional political alignments, we can highlight where the most critical areas of the electorate are for the political arena. If the centre-left voter is among those most identified with a party (but only 20.8%) or feels close to it (39.4%), it is the so-called moderate voters (centre: 61.2%) who express a far more negotiating attitude. On the other hand, those who do not feel they belong to any of the political families show a strong detachment from politics (43.8%). Thus, moderates and those who do not identify with traditional political cultures constitute the electoral reservoirs for the parties to draw on in order to increase their electoral reserve.
The profile of those who are unwilling or unable to place themselves along the right-left continuum is clear enough. Said to be about 28.6% of Northeasterners, in this group we are more likely to find women (28.6%), younger people (31.8%, up to 24 years old), those with low educational qualifications (29.8%), and housewives (46.6%). But, to date, how many are thinking of going to vote or not? 70.7% say they will go to the polls, while the remaining 29.3% show more or less strong doubts. This is a share not dissimilar to the abstentionism recorded in 2013, if not a slight further increase. Those who are more undecided are more than young people, those in active market conditions (35-64 years old), those with low educational qualifications and living in Trentino Alto Adige and Veneto. In particular, uncertainty concerns those who have a bargaining attitude towards politics, the detached, voters of moderate orientation and those who do not take a political line. The prevailing (and growing over time) reason why they do not think they will go to vote is because they consider it a useless act: things do not change anyway (67.3%, 36.9% in 2015).
On the one hand, traditional political affiliations have crumbled and the voter mainly looks at the political offer with attentive, but disenchanted and negotiating eyes. On the other hand, the uncertainty of the political scenario (which has lasted for a quarter of a century!) and the sense of uselessness of the action of voting pervades important portions of the citizens. This is the image of a country where deconstruction and precariousness are now the norm. And attempts at reconstruction and reform never seem to find fulfilment. On the contrary, what has been built is demolished by those who come after. But only constructive planning can regenerate the social capital that is fundamental for the future: trust.
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research, in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo - Cassa Risparmio Veneto, carried out the Survey, which took place nationwide from 9 to 22 January 2018 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged over 18. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the Questlab company. The total number of respondents was 1,482 (out of 13,384 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey via the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems.
