The terrain of politics is magmatic. And it is not a question here of political formations constantly breaking down and recomposing, of variable alliances or voting intentions, but of the population's perception of political cultures and parties. Italians' orientations on these issues are shot through with a set of tensions, sometimes even conflicting. Could it be otherwise? We are still going through a process of adjustment of the national political system that began with the fall of the First Republic, but which at a distance of about a quarter of a century (sic!) has still not been consolidated. The changes of course are so sudden - see what is happening in recent weeks on electoral reform - as to leave even the most experienced political analysts disoriented. In the meantime, in these 25 years, the world context has changed radically, the conditions and factors of competition have changed, we have gone through (and still haven't finished) one of the deepest economic crises, international terrorism has arrived in Europe. In the face of all this, political actors are entangled in internal logics, incapable of expressing coherent visions of the future, far-reaching projects. It is inevitable, therefore, that the electorate appears disoriented, sometimes disillusioned and detached.
However, it is not standing still and something seems to be changing in the orientations as the first round votes in the recent local elections and the latest survey on the opinions of the population show. Let us try to gather the signals that emerge in the orientations towards politics. The first is that, despite everything, for a large majority of the population, parties are considered an essential element for the exercise of democracy: 66.8% believe that democracy cannot function without them. This does not mean that there is trust in parties, because as is well known, the trust attributed to political institutions (with the exception of the President of the Republic) is very low. The parties on the political market today do not meet expectations: just over half are interested in politics, but they do not like the parties as they are today (54.1%). Despite the novelty of participation via the web, the one-world-one, light and plastic parties, the idea prevails that a structured organisation of consensus and presence on the ground is still the most appropriate instrument to make a democracy work. It is interesting to observe how this thesis is most strongly supported by the younger generations (72.7%) and by those who position themselves in the centre-left political area (78.6%), while on the other hand those who do not position themselves along the traditional right-left axis believe that party forms are not so necessary (53.1%). Perhaps a need for renewed points of reference in politics as well, perhaps cultures that are more attentive to the functioning mechanisms of democracy: in any case, there is a need to rethink the party form. This point is closely linked to the second signal: traditional political categories. Now, in recent decades we have experienced the progressive mutation of acronyms and political formations, including splits, recompositions, and the emergence of new subjects. All this, however, has occurred without any radical reflection on value horizons, basic visions and courses of action. What 'right' or 'left' means today, in a profoundly changed social and economic context, is a question that is hard to answer. But the absence of preliminary reasoning leads to the construction of movements and parties or fragile mergers and alliances of uncertain duration. Thus, for a conspicuous part of Italians (59.0%) the traditional right/centre/left categories have today lost their meaning, are no longer able to help interpret phenomena, and find themselves orphans of cultural (and political) reference horizons. Therefore, a reflection on political cultures, reference values and their declinations must be put before the party form: new and coherent narratives are needed. The third signal refers to the relationship between voters and parties. A comparison with a similar survey carried out in 2015 highlights how interest in politics has increased overall. Those who say they identify with a party has risen slightly (25.3%, it was 17.7% in 2015) and so have those who simply feel close to a party: 27.1%, it was 18.0%). Above all, those who have a negotiating relationship are increasing (31.4%, was 11.6%): they assess from time to time on the basis of programmes and people to whom they give their vote. But, in particular, the disillusioned (16.2%, it was 52.7%), those who do not find parties close to their own ideas or who feel they are not needed, are decreasing sharply. In short, those who are distant from politics. Therefore, the weakening of disillusionment with parties, rather than fostering identification processes, fuels a negotiating relationship that goes beyond traditional alignments and configures a mobile and selective voter. Who uses the vote (and also the non-vote) in an instrumental way, less of a sense of belonging. In this sense, comes the fourth signal: the growing assumption of responsibility. There is a growing awareness that doing politics well requires specific preparation (79.6%, it was 71.6% in 2015). But so does self-criticism, so much so that 88.8% believe that if politics is poor, the responsibility also lies with citizens (it was 69.9%).
We come from years in which scandals and privileges of the political caste are rightly denounced almost daily by the media and mocked by satire. A long operation destruens has been achieved by severely undermining the reputation of politicians and parties. In spite of a widespread imagination, Italians are more attentive to politics than they think. Disillusioned yes, but negotiating and selective in their choices. Today in search of parties construenscapable of planning and coherent narratives about the future.
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research carries out the LaST (Laboratory on Society and Territory) Survey, which was conducted nationwide from 6 to 12 April 2017 on a representative sample of the population resident in Italy, aged 18 and over. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the Questlab company. The total number of respondents was 1,655 (out of 14,103 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.4%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it
