The majority among north-eastern Europeans still look favourably on the European Union, but with a little more disenchantment than a few years ago. At the same time, however, the number of discontented, anti-European-oriented people is growing. On the other hand, Europe does not enjoy good health, and unfortunately this is nothing new. From the outbreak of the crisis in 2008 and the subsequent management marked by austerity at the limits of paroxysm, through the (non-)management of migratory flows, to Brexit, the Union has certainly not been at its best. The same August meeting in Ventotene between the prime ministers of France, Germany and Italy, where the 'pages of the EU's future' were to be written (Renzi dixit), did not seal any progress. On the contrary, since then the divisions have become even more pronounced and for the past few weeks the Italian Prime Minister himself has been hurling accusations at a Union deaf to the flexibility needed to deal with humanitarian emergencies and an economic recovery that is still too slow. The outcome of this entanglement of the EU is to have fuelled winds of protest and populism, so much so as to make a deflagration of the project that has hitherto guaranteed peace and development to an ever-growing number of nations implausible. Britain's exit from the Union sanctioned by popular referendum (albeit now under discussion) represents the most traumatic event, and the tests of the forthcoming political elections in several countries will be further tests for the resilience of that design.
In our country, there is no shortage of politicians and parties that fiercely criticise the European bureaucracy, even to the point of wishing for an exit from the Union emulating the British or the abandonment of the single currency. So, many factors seem to be working against the EU and conspiring against its resilience. But to what extent does the population of the North East express anti-European sentiment? To what extent do they look favourably on Italy's exit from the continental union? The research carried out (Community Media Research) tells, however, of a general orientation that is certainly not enthusiastic towards Europe, with not marginal areas of criticality, but certainly not inclined towards prospects of abandonment. On the contrary, it asks the Italian government for a greater and renewed commitment to the change of the EU aimed at strengthening it.
We asked the northeasterners to what extent they would follow the British lead by holding a popular referendum on whether or not to remain in the Union. The majority (51.4%) felt that on such a thorny issue it should be the elected politicians who should decide what to do, especially among the Trentino and Upper Adige (87.0%). While just over a quarter (28.0%) would be of the opinion that it should be the people who decide, an orientation that is particularly widespread in Friuli Venezia Giulia (34.4%). It may be what happened in the post-Brexit period and, perhaps, it does not represent a renewed feeling towards politicians, but such an outcome highlights a cautiousness of the respondents in deciding 'from the gut' towards such complex issues. And it also constitutes an attribution of responsibility towards their representatives, which is not insignificant. Not least because, in any case, the Union is experienced as an achievement, an institution that one cannot get rid of with inexperience. Proof of this is that only 14.3% consider Europe an obstacle on the path out of our country's economic difficulties, particularly in Friuli Venezia Giulia (22.5%). On the other hand, almost twice as many (24.4%, and as many as 34.4% in Trentino Alto Adige) see it as an opportunity to overcome our country's shortcomings. In the end, the majority among the north-easterners experience the EU as a necessity (60.4%), which, however, must be rethought in its structure and objectives. Ultimately, a dual and complementary orientation towards the EU prevails. On the one hand, the prospect of leaving the EU and, above all, abandoning the euro and returning to the old lira frightens a large section of the population. In the first case, 58.5% of those interviewed believe that if Italy were not part of the Union the economic difficulties would be even worse, giving it a defensive and propulsive role for our production system. In the second case, 68.3% consider an exit from the euro to be a harbinger of an upsurge in our economic conditions. On the other hand, there is a widespread idea that Italy should commit itself to fostering a change in EU policies and prospects, including by negotiating new and more flexible rules. Thus, more than four-fifths of Northeasterners (84.9%) would like the government to promote coordination between the economic policies of the various nations, which would also have a positive impact on our performance. This should be accompanied by obtaining greater flexibility on financial constraints (54.8%), although on this specific point respondents show greater caution perhaps mindful of our traditional ability to circumvent regulations. Ultimately, summing up the orientations expressed, comparing them with what was found in 2014, a tendency of polarisation of attitudes towards the EU emerges. The 'euro-convinced', those who consider an abandonment of the Union and the euro harmful, make up almost two-thirds of the population (62.4%), a share slightly down on 2014 (66.3%). It should be noted that if in Trentino Alto Adige (81.0%, was 63.7%) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (72.3%, was 67.9%) the parterre of those in favour of the EU increases, it is in Veneto where we see a significant drop (57.7%, was 65.6%). On the opposite, the 'anti-euro' (18.6%), totally opposed to the EU, are a minority, but not marginal part, also significantly increasing on 2014 (8.8%), especially among the Veneto region (20.6%, was 7.7%). As a result, the 'euro-friendlies' (10.8%, they were 17.8% in 2014), in favour of the EU but with perplexities, decrease in weight, while the 'euro-sceptics' (8.2%, they were 7.2% in 2014), indifferent or inclined to leave the EU, remain stable.
Europe, although battered and never so fragmented, lacking a common vision and engrossed in revisiting reference values, nevertheless still constitutes a common horizon for the vast majority of Italians. It no longer warms hearts as it once did, but it would be detrimental to deprive ourselves of it. On the contrary, it is precisely at this juncture that national politics is being asked to take it on, to be the driving force behind its change. And perhaps it is no coincidence that the 'euro-convinced' are the youngest, the students, the graduates: those who hope for a future ahead of them, a project in which to invest.
- Finegil Newspapers, 27 November 2016
- Il Giornale di Vicenza, 27 November 2016
- the Little One, 27 November 2016
- Messaggero Veneto, 29 November 2016
- South Tyrol, 30 November 2016
- Trentino, 30 November 2016
Daniele Marini
Methodological note
Community Media Research carried out the survey, which took place nationwide from 18 October to 4 November 2016 on a representative sample of the Italian resident population aged 18 and over. The methodological aspects and the survey were taken care of by the company Questlab. The total number of respondents was 1,486 (out of 12,785 contacts). The data analysis was reproportioned on the basis of gender, territory, age group, occupational status and educational qualification. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. The survey was carried out with a visual survey through the main social networks and with a random sample that could be reached with the CAWI and CATI systems. Full document on www.agcom.it e www.communitymediaresearch.it.
