Right on cue during these difficult years, as the old year draws to a close and the new one begins, the question arises: will this finally be the year of economic recovery? Are we emerging from the tunnel of the crisis? Various figures show that the manufacturing sector and the labour market have started to show positive signs once again. The very indicators of confidence among households, consumers and businesses are now pointing upwards. The recent Christmas holidays, the tourism sector and the start of the sales have shown encouraging results. However, these signs are counterbalanced by others that remain negative. Critical situations and difficulties continue to emerge: corporate crises, redundancies, and unemployment that remains at very high levels. All this suggests that we are not yet witnessing a recovery across the entire economic system, one that affects all sectors uniformly, but rather a patchy recovery. Dynamic developments are counterbalanced by other critical situations. Nevertheless, finally, after many long years of economic contraction and recession, it seems that the economy has started to move forward again.
La Stampa, p. 19, 25 January 2016
Still slowly and hesitantly, because for several years progress has been stalled and the country’s system itself has been unable to reform itself adequately. However, as Prime Minister Renzi and the Government maintain, several reforms have been approved and are being implemented, whilst others are in the pipeline. The way forward, therefore, is to persevere with reform and instil confidence to consolidate the recovery. This sort of two-pronged approach (reforms and confidence) appears to be yielding positive results, even taking into account the time lag between economic data and the implementation of reforms, on the one hand; and, on the other, the actual impact and the public’s perception of the benefits achieved.
To what extent, then, do the positive outcomes reflected in the economic results influence public perception? To what extent do they help people feel that we are emerging from the crisis? The public seems to be sensing a change in the climate perhaps more quickly than is actually the case within the economy (Community Media Research in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo, for La Stampa). The reason lies in a combination of factors. On the one hand, changes in consumer behaviour – which has become more selective – have enabled people to cope better with periods of economic difficulty. On the other hand, after many years of political stagnation, signs of change are beginning to emerge. Furthermore, there is a need for a less contentious atmosphere and a more positive narrative about the country’s future that can instil confidence. Thus, whilst today around one in two Italians (53.6 per cent) expect it to take over a year and a half to emerge from the crisis, in 2014 as many as 68.2 per cent shared this view. Consequently, for 15 per cent of the population, the path out of the crisis has become relatively shorter. Conversely, those who believe that economic recovery is already underway still represent a marginal proportion (8.0 per cent), although this figure has risen by 6 percentage points (from 2.2 per cent in 2014). It certainly cannot be said that sentiment has changed radically, but it can be stated that Italians are cautiously perceiving the start of a positive turnaround.
If we seek to summarise the findings and analyse the results in greater depth, we identify four profiles of respondents with regard to the end of the crisis. The ‘pessimists’, who believe that the difficulties will not come to an end until at least the end of 2017 (53.6 per cent), make up the majority, albeit a sharp decline from 68.2 per cent in 2014. Pessimism appears to be more widespread amongst the younger generations entering the labour market (aged 25–34), pensioners, manual workers and those living in areas with a high concentration of micro and very small enterprises (Central and North-East Italy). Conversely, the number of ‘optimists’ has risen from 12.4 per cent (2014) to 18.4 per cent; they believe the recovery is already underway or, at the very latest, see the light at the end of the tunnel by the end of 2016. This group includes the younger generations (up to 34 years old) and entrepreneurs. In particular, it comprises the unemployed and residents of the South, as if to emphasise the need for the hope of a genuine recovery to materialise, given the challenges they face. The third group is made up of the ‘cautious’ (14.4 per cent), a figure that has also risen compared with 2014 (6.9 per cent): they expect the crisis to end within 18 months, a view widespread amongst the youngest age group (up to 24 years old) and housewives. Finally, the proportion of ‘undecided’ respondents – those who cannot put a timeframe on the end of the crisis – has remained stable over time (13.6 per cent, compared with 12.5 per cent in 2014).
It is difficult to predict when we will actually emerge from the tunnel of the crisis, and no one is able to foresee it with any precision. For uncertainty is perhaps one of the few certainties we have today. But in a rapidly changing landscape, we need, more than ever, both reform measures that give a sense of having set a course, and confidence, as well as a positive vision of the country’s future: one to be built responsibly.
Daniele Marini
