The three scenarios for the regional elections: from Renzi’s strengthening to the fallout for the government and the PD. A 6–0 victory – the prediction Renzi put forward yesterday from Vicenza – is the best possible outcome and would strengthen his position, but consideration is also being given to what would happen with a 5–2 result, or worse, a 4–3 result. The knock-on effects would affect the Government and also the PD, as well as the relationship with the regions – a relationship that these regional elections have brought to light. But not in a good way. In the sense that this election campaign and the primaries have stripped away more than one mask to reveal what the party is really like at a local level. […] Finally, there is Veneto and the candidacy of Alessandra Moretti, which, despite herself, offers another perspective on the lack of harmony between the PD and the regions. One need only cite a survey carried out by Daniele Marini’s Community Media Research: whilst Zaia represents added value for centre-right voters and is favoured by 88 per cent, Moretti is liked by only 58 per cent of PD voters. The question is: can someone who is liked by little more than a majority of the party’s own voters stand as a candidate for the regional government? Either Renzi has already written off the race by banking on a 6 to 1 result, or he has failed to realise that the regional elections are a different kettle of fish from the European elections, where he secured 37 per cent a year ago. His troubles, however, do not lie in Veneto and would begin with a 4 to 3 result. Even before it hits the PD, the backlash from such a result would hit the government, throw future reforms into crisis and set Renzi’s instincts on high alert. He might react by starting to consider how to call an election as soon as possible.
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